Estimativa da performance térmica de Cycloneda sanguinea L. (Coleoptera: Coccinelidae) utilizando modelos lineares e não lineares
Abstract
Understanding the life cycle of insects and their relation to environmental factors such
as temperature is essential for the optimization of pest control programs. However,
information that considers insect survival and development rates together is incipient.
The assessment of these rates concomitantly may reveal the performance in terms of
viability and speed of development in a given environmental condition. The insect
development rate is often estimated using degree-day-based models, however,
nonlinear models have been shown to be more adequate in estimating these rates
because they are more realistic and still provide maximum and optimal development
temperatures. Thus, the present study estimated the maximum performance of
Cycloneda sanguinea L. (Coleoptera: Coccinelidae) as a function of temperature using
a linear model, and described the relationship between predator developmental rates
and temperature using nonlinear models. The maximum performance was estimated
by derivative of the logistic equation. The best models for describing larval phase
development rates at different temperatures are the Analytis and Brière models, while
Sharpe & DeMichele and Brière are more suitable for the pupa stage of C. sanguinea.
For males the estimated temperature that caused the maximum performance was 31°C
for the 1st and 2nd instar, for the third and fourth instars the predicted temperature is
28.9 and 27.3oC, respectively. Regarding the females, the temperature that favored the
maximum rate of development and survival was 31°C for the first three instars and
27°C to 4th instar. It was evidenced that besides the effect of temperature dependence
the performance of the individuals varies according to stage of development and sex of
the individuals. With this information it will be possible to better base the multiplication
and release programs of C. sanguinea, accurately controlling the speed of
development in the laboratory or even scheduling the most favorable times for its
release.
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