Previsão probabilística dos resultados da copa do mundo de 2022 usando uma abordagem bayesiana
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Data
2023-09-06Autor
Moribayashi, Rodrigo Hideki
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This work aims to build and evaluate a predictive statistical model
for football matches. To achieve this, we consider a Bayesian approach in a new
model inspired by Lee (1997). The inspiration comes from two points mentioned by the author: the
fact that he considers the number of goals scored by both teams as independent variables
and with Poisson distribution, and that the average number of goals by teams in a match
are explained by the offensive and defensive effects of the teams. In this work, we propose
model these effects for the teams participating in the 2022 World Cup, through
of players' scores in the FIFA 23 video game. These effects are considered
together with the odds of sports betting sites, which are represented by parameters
of a prior with Gamma distribution. The Bayesian procedure is applied to obtain
of the marginal distributions of the data (number of goals for each team), allowing
thus calculating the probabilities associated with the matches.
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