Modelagem e simulação em plantas de etanol: uma abordagem técnico-econômica

Abstract

The ethanol (fuel grade and anhydrous) is, fundamentally, the most relevant global biofuel nowadays, in energy, environmental, economic and technological terms. This scenario brings up the Brazilian ethanol, made from sugarcane, a very studied topic. Thus, knowing the process of ethanol production from sugarcane in technical terms shows itself as a relevant fact, since it can contribute to the increase of production plants profits. Notoriously, the acquaintance and analysis of some project s economic viability can greatly optimize the intended returns, while it can be taken as tool for decision making. Therefore, the present work aimed, in the technical side, the improvement of the computational model (developed with EMSO software) capable of simulating ethanol plants (first and second generations 1G and 2G, respectively) by the input of realistic data, obtained from actual operating ethanol plants. In the economic aspect, the simulations production data were used to feed the economic viability analysis, using the IRR (internal return rate) and NPV (net present value) concepts. Thereby, three cases were considered: 1) plant producing 1G ethanol and electric energy surplus (plant A); 2) plant producing 1G and 2G ethanol, no electric energy surplus (plant B) and 3) plant producing 1G ethanol and: either 2G ethanol or electric energy surplus (plant C). One obtained the following: IRRA = 7.6% and NPVA = - USD 34,5M; IRRB = 8,3% and NPVB = - USD 30,0M; IRRC = 8,0% and NPVC = - USD 41,8M. So, from that, one concludes that the methodology, the software and the biorefinery model were useful and adequate for the projected analysis. In comparison with the minimum acceptable rate of return (MARR, 11% in this case), none of the scenarios were acceptable (IRRs < MARR), which is ratified by the negative NPVs (all). None of the simulated plants were considered economic viable, being plant B the most attractive among the three cases, under the given conditions and assumptions.