Análise técnica e família GARCH para séries temporais financeiras

Abstract

The stock market is an environment where people buy and sell stocks and financial assets, becoming shareholders of companies with the aim of making profits through dividends and stock appreciation. Today, living off income from the stock market is sought after by many, as it provides passive income, portfolio diversification, and accessible investments. The Stock Exchange not only benefits investors but also companies, allowing them to finance their investments by selling parts of their capital. Moreover, it is essential for economic growth, being considered the heart of the economy. In this context, this work employs two techniques for stock analysis: technical analysis, carried out through graphs, and analysis using the GARCH family, with the R software. The goal is to predict whether it is advantageous to buy, sell, or hold a stock in a specific financial time series based on indicators such as the stock’s opening and closing values. This analysis has the potential to guide both investors and companies in their future decisions, contributing to those entering or already involved in the stock market. We conclude that neither of these forms of analysis is better than the other; rather, they complement each other. Technical analysis is ideal for identifying short-term profit opportunities, while the GARCH model helps understand the risk and volatility involved. The ideal approach is to combine both to make more accurate and balanced decisions.