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Uma avaliação de métodos de previsão aplicados à grandes quantidades de séries temporais univariadas
(Universidade Federal de São Carlos, 2012-12-06)
Time series forecasting is probably one of the most primordial interests on economics and econometrics, and the literature on this subject is extremely vast. Due to technological growth in recent decades, large amounts of ...
Combinação de classificadores para inferência dos rejeitados
(Universidade Federal de São Carlos, 2012-03-16)
In credit scoring problems, the interest is to associate to an element who request some kind of credit, a probability of default. However, traditional models uses samples biased because the data obtained from the tenderers ...
Modelos de sobrevivência com base nas distribuições geométrica e exponencial
(Universidade Federal de São Carlos, 2013-02-01)
In this dissertation we propose four models to model lifetime data. The fist family of distribution is called Exponentiated Complementary Exponential Geometric distribution (ECEG) and it is obtained by exponentiation of ...
Modelo de regressão de valor extremo para dados agrupados
(Universidade Federal de São Carlos, 2013-03-11)
One of the distributions used to model extremal events is the type I extremevalue distribution (Gumbel distribution). The usual extreme-value regression model requires independent observations. In this work, using generalized ...
Verificação da performance de modelos APARCH assimétricos aplicados a dados financeiros
(Universidade Federal de São Carlos, 2013-04-01)
The volatility of financial assets changes over time, indicating the specification of regime change in volatility models. Furthermore, the presence of asymmetry in the returns of the financial market has been recognized ...
Modelos dinâmicos de resposta binária para dados em painel
(Universidade Federal de São Carlos, 2008-06-06)
A summary of the state of the art relative to regression models for binary response variable and panel data is presented in this work. Those models may include efects from several sources: specific variables of interest, ...
Modelagem de fraude em cartão de crédito
(Universidade Federal de São Carlos, 2008-09-02)
The transactions volume increase brought the fraud increase, which result in a annual loss of billions of reais to all .nancial institutions in the world. Therefore, it.s very important the development of detection methods ...
Especificação do tamanho da defasagem de um modelo dinâmico
(Universidade Federal de São Carlos, 2009-03-06)
Several techniques are proposed to determine the lag length of a dynamic regression model. However, none of them is completely satisfactory and a wrong choice could imply serious problems in the estimation of the parameters. ...
Metodologia gráfica para dados de eventos recorrentes via bootstrap.
(Universidade Federal de São Carlos, 2005-01-05)
Experiments related to recurrent events provide information about the number of events,
time to their ocurrence and their costs. Nelson (1995) presents a methodology to obtain
confidence intervals for the cost and the ...
Modelo de regressão com erros normais assimétricos: uma abordagem bayesiana
(Universidade Federal de São Carlos, 2005-12-13)
The statistical analysis of the continuous data set has been developed in most cases for normal models, specially, in the linear and nom linear models context. In the simple linear regression models, even accepting as ...