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Modelos de regressão binomial correlacionada
(Universidade Federal de São Carlos, 2012-05-18) Pires, Rubiane Maria; Diniz, Carlos Alberto Ribeiro; https://lattes.cnpq.br/3277371897783194; https://lattes.cnpq.br/0854480063777126
In this thesis, a class of correlated binomial regression models is proposed. The model is based on the generalized binomial distribution proposed by Luceño (1995) and Luceño & Ceballos (1995). The regression structure is modeled by using four different link functions and the dependence between the Bernoulli trials is modeled by using three different correlation structures. A data augmentation scheme is used in order to overcome the complexity of the mixture likelihood. Frequentist and Bayesian approaches are used in the model fitting process. A diagnostics analysis is provided in order to check the underlying model assumptions and to identify the presence of outliers and/or influential observations. Simulation studies are presented to illustrate the performance of the developed methodology. A real data set is analyzed by using the proposed models. Also the correlated binomial regression models is extended to include measurement error in a predictor. This new class of models is called additive normal structure correlated binomial regression models. The inference process also includes a data augmentation scheme to overcome the complexity of the mixture likelihood.
Influência da estrutura da vegetação de um fragmento florestal nas características físicas e químicas da água e no funcionamento do ecossistema de um córrego rural
(Universidade Federal de São Carlos, 2012-05-18) Fernandes, Janaina de Fátima; Tanaka, Marcel Okamoto; https://lattes.cnpq.br/2768658925977757; https://lattes.cnpq.br/4250822030431392
Riparian ecosystems are being rapidly degraded due to deforestation for conversion of natural areas to agriculture, pasture, and urban development. In rural areas, riparian forest remnants can be very important for biodiversity conservation and for the maintenance and improvement of water physical and chemical characteristics as the deforested stream passes through these remnants. Here, we evaluated whether distance from the forest edge and forest structure influenced stream water physical and chemical characteristics and leaf breakdown rates, a measure of ecosystem function. Sampling was carried out from 150 m outside the remnant until 600 m inside the forest remnant. Water physical and chemical characteristics, leaf breakdown rates and riparian forest structure were evaluated at 50 m intervals until 300 m inside the remnant, and then each 100 m. Forest structure was evaluated by mean diameter at breast height, total basal area, mean canopy height, tree stratification, and tree density per plot; the variables were later reduced to the first two axes of a Principal Components Analysis (PCA), representing two gradients, 1) forest stratification vs. tree size, and 2) tree density vs. basal area. Electric conductivity and ammonium concentrations reduced as the stream passed through the remnant, whereas dissolved oxygen, total phosphorus, total dissolved P, organic P, silicate concentrations, and leaf breakdown rates increased along the remnant, as determined by first-order exponential models. Residual variation of these models was regressed against the first two PCA axes of forest structure. More stratified parts of the forest, with smaller trees, resulted in lower electric conductivity values and concentrations of total nitrogen and nitrite, whereas higher density of trees resulted in lower levels of total and dissolved P, but higher rates of leaf breakdown. This suggests that the distribution of fragments with different qualities of forest, with different structures possibly influences the quality of the water stream on a scale of watersheds.
Textos de divulgação científica para o ensino de química: características e possibilidades
(Universidade Federal de São Carlos, 2012-05-18) Ferreira, Luciana Nobre de Abreu; Queiroz, Salete Linhares; https://lattes.cnpq.br/7925870606416937; https://lattes.cnpq.br/8964577964173620
In recent years, researchers in science education have showed the potential of popular science texts (PST) to promote several benefits to students. Thus, investigated in this work aspects that may contribute to the discussion about the didactic use of PST in teaching chemistry. By the way, the main objectives of this work are: to select and to analyze articles published into Ciência Hoje Magazine from 2004 to 2009 witch aim was to discuss some of their features; elaborate and analyze a didactic strategy with PST, in order to understand the functioning of reading the same in the classroom; investigate the trajectory of pre-service chemistry teachers during of the preparing and implementing PST classes making. The articles were analyzed according to the content and the structure based on an analytical tool proposed by Kawamura and colleagues and the characteristics of popular scientific discourse according to Zamboni's considerations. This analysis revealed that the articles have different characteristics, although the same conditions of production, specifically with the features of scientific, didactic and laic discourses. These distinctions are positive considering that their didactic possibilities provided that they allow the teachers to be aware of those characteristics and select texts in accordance with to their didactic goals. The trajectory analysis of pre-service chemistry teachers, we made considerations about the chosen PST, their pedagogical aim, the strategies designed to make use of PST and its functioning in the classroom. Also presented the results of the three trainees preparing and practice using PST in classroom and the types of discourses appropriated by students chemistry teacher, which was based on Discourse Analysis French Line, specifically discourse typology, developed by Orlandi. The typology results demonstrated transitions from a pedagogic discourse, predominantly authoritarian, to a polemical discourse, the suggested a teaching practice not centered on the teacher. The results from the measures in high school with PST, based on the discourse typology and authorship, beyond Orlandi s author conception, showed that the interactions established between students and teacher in the moment of the reading and the discussion about PST. It was used as a basis for encouraging discussions and contextualization the theme. The conditions of production do not favored the charging of unique responses, practice which promotes the exercise of repetition without reflection. In students' written production was possible perceive meanings expanded about the studied theme. The impressions of students about the teaching proposal demonstrate their good reception of it and indicate their contributions.
Avaliação dos pontos de apoio (ecopontos) na gestão dos resíduos sólidos urbanos: estudo de caso de São José do Rio Preto - SP
(Universidade Federal de São Carlos, 2012-05-18) Silva, Augusto Azevedo da; Teixeira, Bernardo Arantes do Nascimento; https://lattes.cnpq.br/1166854416745527; https://lattes.cnpq.br/0432344275684134
The use of Support Points (AP), also known as Eco points, the integrated management of municipal solid waste (MSW) has occurred in different cities of the world and in Brazil, such practice is spreading, albeit slowly. The prospect is that such use contributes to a better management of MSW. It is necessary, however, to monitor and evaluate these procedures to ascertain their role and improve its functioning. In this sense, this research aimed to make an assessment of the system of points of support (Ecopoints) exists in the city of São José do Rio Preto, Brazil. Therefore, data were collected on these devices, such as the characteristics and condition of its facilities, the quantities and types of waste received and other operational data. Was also made, through interviews with locals and professional users, a query on the knowledge of them regarding the importance and correct use of PA. The results showed that the use of PA was effective for receiving small volums, they are delivered by the residents, transporting small loads or construction professionals. However, the data showed some inconsistencies, showing the need for more efficient management. Similarly, data on costs of implementation and operation need to be monitored because it was not possible to assess this aspect of management. With regard to consultation with users and other residents, there was a certain ignorance of the system, although part of the population will use, indicating the need for further clarification and guidance. In general, one can consider that the points of support are a device that improves the management of municipal solid waste (in the case studied, absorbs 23% of the waste generated RCC, besides presenting a reception higher when compared to other cities), but it is necessary an efficient and dynamic to fulfill more effectively its role and not be considered only as irregular depositions that became "organized" by the municipal administration.
Análise da estrutura filogeográfica das espécies do grupo Pilosocereus Aurisetus (Cactaceae) utilizando marcadores moleculares do genoma do cloroplasto (cpDNA)
(Universidade Federal de São Carlos, 2012-05-18) Bonatelli, Isabel Aparecida da Silva; Moraes, Evandro Marsola de; https://lattes.cnpq.br/3100796431732251; https://lattes.cnpq.br/9946082913752883
PILOSOCEREUS AURISETUS is a taxonomic group composed by eight columnar cacti species occurring on rock outcrops in xeric environments. As other xerophitic species found outside the Caatinga domain, the species populations of P. AURISETUS group exhibit a disjunct distribution pattern within the Cerrado domain in central and eastern Brazil. Such a distribution pattern may have resulted from long-distance dispersal events or fragmentation of a more extensive distribution in the past. The main goal of this work was identify demographic events that possibly shaped the evolutionary history of the group and resulted in the current biogeographic pattern. In the present work, phylogenetic analyses and phylogeographical inferences were implemented using the nucleotide variation of plastid genomic sequences. The phylogenetic analyses showed the absence of reciprocal monophyly for great part of the species and the occurring of quite divergent species from the others of the group: P. jauruensis, P. aureispinus e P. bohlei. In addition, P. machrisii populations formed two distinct clades highly supported by the phylogeny which partly agree with the geographic distribution of the species (north and central-south). Population analyses and phylogeographical inferences allowed the identification of the diversification origin of the group and the possible expansion and fragmentation events which determined the evolutionary pathway of the populations. The genetic variability level and the genetic structure observed alongside the current distribution pattern of the populations and biological information about the species suggest that fragmentation events were the main responsible for the biogeographical pattern of the group, which should be related to the palioclimatic oscillations of the Quaternary.