Estatística - Es
Recent Submissions
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Previsão probabilística dos resultados da copa do mundo de 2022 usando uma abordagem bayesiana
(Universidade Federal de São Carlos, UFSCar, , Câmpus São Carlos, 06/09/2023)This work aims to build and evaluate a predictive statistical model for football matches. To achieve this, we consider a Bayesian approach in a new model inspired by Lee (1997). The inspiration comes from two points ... -
Distribuição da estatística de Wald em amostras finitas para modelos GAMLSS paramétricos
(Universidade Federal de São Carlos, UFSCar, , Câmpus São Carlos, 24/08/2023)In parametric regression models, we often want to test hypotheses regarding the values of their parameters. Specifically, when we depart from the general linear model (random errors with a Normal distribution), the Wald ... -
Modelos de regressão defeituosos zero ajustados aplicados a dados de risco de crédito
(Universidade Federal de São Carlos, UFSCar, , Câmpus São Carlos, 18/08/2023)With the increase in consumption of goods, services, and credit granting, it becomes necessary to control the risk of the process. This measure aims to prevent a possible default rate higher than what financial institutions ... -
Máquinas de vetores suporte com aplicação em classificação de crédito
(Universidade Federal de São Carlos, UFSCar, , Câmpus São Carlos, 22/03/2023)The credit granting represents one of the products with the highest profitability within a financial institution. However, to ensure profit, institutions must know to whom they lend their capital. In this scenario, a ... -
Classifcação binária via Bayes Ingênuo: um estudo comparativo de predições
(Universidade Federal de São Carlos, UFSCar, , Câmpus São Carlos, 17/03/2023)In this undergraduate thesis, we propose a review of the Naive Bayes classifcation method applied to binary response variables, with a more in-depth formalization of the Gaussian Naive Bayes and Flexible Naive Bayes ... -
Modelo de predição para dados desbalanceados utilizando informações de financiamentos de veículos
(Universidade Federal de São Carlos, UFSCar, , Câmpus São Carlos, 28/03/2023)For the statistics thesis project, a model adjustment is proposed for unbalanced data, using vehicle financing information, with the response variable being dichotomous, divided into defaulters and non-defaulters. ... -
A estatística no futebol: uma análise dos principais fatores que influenciam o número de gols feitos pelos jogadores no campeonato inglês
(Universidade Federal de São Carlos, UFSCar, , Câmpus São Carlos, 26/01/2023)Soccer is considered one of the most popular sports in the world and its relevance is reflected not only in the crowds that fill the stadiums around the 5 continents within the most varied championships, but also proves ... -
Análise, seleção e agrupamento de características relevantes das equipes da NFL durante os anos de 2013-2016 e suas relações - um estudo de caso
(Universidade Federal de São Carlos, UFSCar, , Câmpus São Carlos, 14/09/2022)On this work, the study of different NFL (National Football League) variables was proposed, with the main goal of analysing, selecting and clustering their characteristics and its correlations. Data on the official NFL ... -
Inferência da conectividade neuronal e o modelo de Galves e Löcherbach
(Universidade Federal de São Carlos, UFSCar, , Câmpus São Carlos, 16/09/2022)One of the most important issues in neuroscience is to understand the dynamics of animal behavior, that is, the joint action of large numbers of neurons, body parts, and the environment. The relationship between this ... -
Modelagem de fração cura com a distribuição Gompertz
(Universidade Federal de São Carlos, UFSCar, , Câmpus São Carlos, 06/09/2022)Survival Analysis is a broad and crucial field of Statistical Science. Survival models are useful for estimating the reliability function, describe data properties and more. Considering medical studies, the aim is ... -
Um perfil do comportamento e características dos indivíduos frente a covid-19 a partir da pnad covid19
(Universidade Federal de São Carlos, UFSCar, , Câmpus São Carlos, 09/09/2022)The National Household Sample Survey (PNAD), which is conducted by IBGE, consists of general characteristics of the population, education, labor, income and housing. The COVID-19 pandemic, started in March 2020, imposed ... -
Estimação paramétrica do modelo de mistura padrão com fragilidade aditiva gama: aplicação a dados de câncer de mama
(Universidade Federal de São Carlos, UFSCar, , Câmpus São Carlos, 16/09/2022)Breast cancer is caused by the uncontrolled growth of abnormal cells in the breast, which multiply rapidly, aggressively and uncontrollably. This disease affects women all over the world, both in developed and underdeveloped ... -
Uma abordagem estatística sobre a estimação de redshifts de quasares usando dados do S-PLUS
(Universidade Federal de São Carlos, UFSCar, , Câmpus São Carlos, 08/09/2022)Redshift is a cosmic index used to measure distances to astronomical objects. The study of this quantity is important for the understanding of the expansion of the Universe and the current objective of the stars, according ... -
Utilização de métodos de aprendizado de máquina para estimação de escores de propensão
(Universidade Federal de São Carlos, UFSCar, , Câmpus São Carlos, 18/04/2022)Increasingly larger and more complex databases can be easily obtained and appropriate technologies for modeling massive amounts of data become increasingly necessary in order to optimize results and predictions. Machine ... -
Métodos de detecção de fraude em cartões de crédito: um estudo comparativo
(Universidade Federal de São Carlos, UFSCar, , Câmpus São Carlos, 14/04/2022)The arrival of the pandemic radically changed the consumption habits of goods and services, starting to occur almost exclusively in the virtual world, which in turn, in the context of fraud, has a greater number of loopholes ... -
Um estudo sobre os impactos de algumas medidas sanitárias na incidência e mortalidade por COVID-19
(Universidade Federal de São Carlos, UFSCar, , Câmpus São Carlos, 07/04/2022)Since March 2020, Brazil, like the whole world, has been facing a major pandemic caused by COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2). COVID-19 is a highly transmissible respiratory infection and for this reason governments around the world ... -
Um estudo sobre a provisão de consórcio com séries temporais e machine learning
(Universidade Federal de São Carlos, UFSCar, , Câmpus São Carlos, 07/04/2022)The consortium sector of a particular company works by dividing its customers into groups that start and finish at the same time the payment of installments of a combined amount to obtain their own vehicle. The acquisition ... -
Estudo e comparação das técnicas de validação cruzada desenvolvidas para séries temporais
(Universidade Federal de São Carlos, UFSCar, , Câmpus São Carlos, 18/04/2022)Testing the generalization capacity of an algorithm obtained is crucial for any prediction methodology, for which cross-validation methods were developed. However, when dealing with data that have dependency among observations, ... -
Redes neurais aplicadas a grafos: uma abordagem semi-supervisionada
(Universidade Federal de São Carlos, UFSCar, , Câmpus São Carlos, 18/04/2022)In this work, we propose an in-depth analysis of Graph Convolutional Networks, a semi-supervised machine learning method for node classification in graph-structured data. Based on the seminal work proposed by Thomas Kipf ... -
Árvores hibridas: particionamento recursivo baseado em modelos paramétricos
(Universidade Federal de São Carlos, UFSCar, , Câmpus São Carlos, 12/04/2022)The present study seeks to explore hybrid trees, so called called recursive partitioning based on parametric models. Such method is based on traditional decision trees (regression and classification tree) and parametric ...