Análise preditiva e cenários futuros para manejo de resíduos gerados no tratamento de água na bacia hidrográfica Tietê Jacaré

Abstract

The management of waste from full-cycle water treatment (LTA and ALAF) is a complex problem for water utilities. This research aims to analyze the management of these wastes in WTPs located in the TIETÊ-JACARÉ Water Resources Management Unit (UGRHI 13), using strategic indicators (SIs) as a tool for predictive analysis and creation of future scenarios. To achieve the proposed objectives, a literature review was conducted to provide theoretical basis and select the most relevant indicators (SIs), a form for data collection during visits to the WTPs was developed and applied, and selected indicators were applied and analyzed. This was followed by the development of three scenarios (realistic, optimistic, and pessimistic) using the multicriteria analysis methodology. Strategic indicators were proposed and applied in WTPs. By applying predictive analysis techniques and future scenarios, it was possible to diagnose and forecast the WTPs and the situation of the water bodies in UGRHI 13, through the construction of three future scenarios (realistic, optimistic, and pessimistic). The application of the Predictive Analysis Score allowed us to visualize the impact of qualitative indicators on the volume of these wastes generated. The scenarios indicated significant variations in the final volume for the year 2035. The results also revealed a decline in the water quality of the water bodies and a lack of monitoring points in the watershed dedicated to public supply, highlighting a need for monitoring more closely related to the water quality of the receiving bodies. A set of six strategic indicators (SIs) was proposed for each waste (LETA and ALAF), three of which are common to both wastes, indirectly assessing their generation.