A evasão sob a lente da administração pública: análise de fatores e diretrizes institucionais de permanência na pós-graduação stricto sensu da UFSCar

Abstract

This dissertation investigates student dropout in stricto sensu graduate programs at the Federal University of São Carlos (UFSCar) between 2019 and 2024, understood as a systemic failure of university Public Administration. Aiming to analyse the factors associated with abandonment and to propose managerial interventions, a convergent mixed-methods design was adopted, combining statistical analysis of 29,806 student enrolment records from CAPES open microdata, documentary analysis of federal and institutional regulations, and Content Analysis of responses from 38 dropouts. The institutional dropout rate rose from 2.9% (2020) to 5.5% (2024), totalling 1,349 withdrawals, with uneven incidence across degree types — 7.40% in Professional Master's, 5.84% in Academic Master's and 2.68% in Doctoral programmes (odds ratio of 2.91 between Professional Master's and Doctoral) —, remaining below national averages, subject to methodological differences between datasets. Among respondents, the "assistance void" and the rigidity of institutional deadlines emerged as the most recurrent factors; supervisory conflicts and mental health conditions preceded withdrawals formalised under administrative labels. It is concluded that dropout entails substantial waste of public capital. In response, the Institutional Guidelines for Permanence (Technological Product) were formulated, highlighting the Integrated System for Monitoring and Welcoming in Graduate Studies (SIMAP).