Quanto dura uma carreira na NBA? Um estudo estatístico com modelos de sobrevivência

Abstract

The objective of this study is to investigate the longevity of the careers of National Basketball Association (NBA) players who debuted between 2010 and 2020. A consolidated database for analysis was constructed using publicly available information on performance, individual characteristics, and injury history. Survival analysis methods were applied, initially with non-parametric estimates via Kaplan-Meier, followed by Cox proportional hazards models and extensions of the stratified model. The aim is to understand the factors that increase or decrease the length of time spent in the league, comparing groups of players by position, age at debut, minutes played, advanced statistics, and health history. Thus, the intention is to contribute to the literature on statistics applied to sport and to offer practical decision-making tools for professionals involved in sports management, scouting (the process of systematically observing and evaluating players), and performance analysis.