Educação inclusiva no Nordeste: modelagem estatística das matrículas da educação especial no ensino fundamental

Abstract

This study analyzed and compared the evolution of enrollments in Inclusive Special Education in the Northeast region of Brazil between 2019 and 2023, focusing on the structural and accessibility factors of schools. Through exploratory analysis and statistical modeling, the study aimed to understand how different variables related to infrastructure and faculty influence the presence of students with disabilities in regular schools. The results indicated a significant increase in enrollments in Inclusive Special Education, particularly in 2023, with a 35% rise compared to 2019. An expansion of accessibility resources was observed, such as adapted restrooms, ramps, and handrails, although elements like elevators and tactile, visual, and auditory signage remain scarce. Statistical modeling, based on the Poisson-Inverse Gaussian model, confirmed the positive relationship between the presence of these resources and the number of enrollments, highlighting the importance of school infrastructure in educational inclusion. Additionally, the number of specialized teachers and specific classrooms also proved to be relevant factors. By comparing the adjusted models for 2019 and 2023, it was concluded that, although the selection criteria indicated a better fit for 2019, the 2023 model exhibited better statistical assumptions, making it the most suitable choice for inference. The results emphasize the need for public policies aimed at expanding accessibility resources and pedagogical support, ensuring the realization of the right to inclusive education.