Análise da demanda por fertilizantes no Brasil no período de 1970 a 2018

Abstract

The objective of this work is to study the determinants of demand for fertilizers in Brazil for the period from 1970 to 2018. The importance of this work is given by an increase in agricultural productivity necessary to combat the food shortage caused by the high estimated population growth over the next years, as Brazil comprises the ranking of the world's largest food producers. The study estimates the accumulated impulse-response functions via an error correction vector model and Johansen's cointegration test. Shocks in the planted area and in the price index received by the rural producer showed positive relationships with the consumption of fertilizers, while the price of fertilizers and rural credit showed negative relationships. Positive shocks in the planted area and in the price index received by the rural producer translated into increases in consumption of 0.9% and 1.0% after 10 periods. The fertilizer price generated a -1.0% decrease in consumption. Rural credit, although not significant, generated a -0.94% decrease in consumption after 10 periods.