Nova classe de modelos paramétricos para análise de sistemas reparáveis
Abstract
The Arithimetic Reduction of Age (ARA) model class from Doyen e Gaudoin (2004) has been
widely used in the analysis of repairable systems, whose repair effect is expressed by an arithmetic
age reduction. However, the class presupposes a state of degradation of the system, this condition
implies β > 1 in the Power Law Process (PLP). However, there are cases in which the system
improves (PLP with β < 1) up to a certain time. Its intensity after repairs remains parallel to
the initial intensity, consequently, it fails to capture other forms of failure intensity. Given these
limitations, we propose the modified ARA1 model (ARAM1), which makes it possible to model
systems in the process of renovation or degradation, and we also propose a new generalized PLP
process (PLPG), based on change points. From the PLPG it is possible to derive the main models
with change points and with imperfect repair. New models are proposed from the PLPG, which
we call completely imperfect repairs (RCI) and partially imperfect repairs (RPI(p)). Another
advantage of this approach is that it allows the intensity after repairs not to remain parallel to
the initial intensity, expanding its applications in the real world. Finally, we propose a new PLP
reparameterization with time truncation to incorporate it into new models and thus obtain a better
interpretation of its parameters. The estimators of the proposed model were obtained using the
maximum likelihood method. We evaluated the performance of the parameter estimators through
Monte Carlo (MC) simulations. For illustration purposes we consider actual failure times in
applications. The proposed models indicated superiority to other models in the literature, which
illustrates the importance of the new approaches.
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