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Abordagem de martingais para análise assintótica do passeio aleatório do elefante
(Universidade Federal de São Carlos, 2018-08-20)
In this work we study the elephant random walk introduced in (SCHUTZ; TRIMPER, 2004),
a discrete time, non-Markovian stochastic process with unlimited range memory that presents
phase transition. Our objective is to proof ...
Estudo do impacto da escolha do modelo para o controle de overdose na fase I dos ensaios clínicos
(Universidade Federal de São Carlos, 2018-10-03)
Escalation with overdose control proportional hazards is a Bayesian method with overdose control that estimates the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) assuming that the time a patient takes to show toxicity follows the proportional ...
Detecting influential observations in spatial models using Bregman divergence
(Universidade Federal de São Carlos, 2018-02-26)
How to evaluate if a spatial model is well ajusted to a problem? How to know if it is the best model between the class of conditional autoregressive (CAR) and simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) models, including homoscedasticity ...
Modelos preditivos para LGD
(Universidade Federal de São Carlos, 2018-05-04)
Financial institutions willing to use the advanced Internal Ratings Based (IRB) need to develop
methods to estimate the LGD (Loss Given Default) risk component. Proposals for PD (Probability
of default) modeling have ...
Quantificação em problemas com mudança de domínio
(Universidade Federal de São Carlos, 2018-05-17)
Several machine learning applications use classifiers as a way of quantifying the prevalence of positive class labels in a target dataset, a task named quantification. For instance, a naive way of determining what proportion ...
A bayesian nonparametric approach for the two-sample problem
(Universidade Federal de São Carlos, 2018-11-19)
In this work, we discuss the so-called two-sample problem (PEARSON; NEYMAN, 1930)
assuming a nonparametric Bayesian approach. Considering X 1 ,...,X n and Y 1 ,...,Y m two inde-
pendent i.i.d samples generated from P 1 ...
Inferência bayesiana em modelos de volatilidade estocástica usando métodos de Monte Carlo Hamiltoniano
(Universidade Federal de São Carlos, 2018-08-10)
This paper presents a study using Bayesian approach in stochastic volatility models for modeling
financial time series, using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo methods (HMC). We propose the use
of other distributions for the errors ...
O corte do FBST em modelos de alta dimensionalidade
(Universidade Federal de São Carlos, 2018-12-03)
The problem of controlling the significance level of the FBST (Full Bayesian Significant Test) test
is studied in the context of Bayesian models for density, thus, a Bayesian method is shown that
works with density ...