Duração das democracias e das ditaduras na Argentina e no Brasil: o que alguns dados econômicos dizem para o período entre 1970-2022?

Abstract

Understanding whether public spending contributes to the maintenance of political regimes is relevant for assessing the role of the state in sustaining political order. This study empirically investigates the relationship between public expenditure and the survival of political regimes. The analysis focuses on Brazil and Argentina over the period from 1970 to 2022, using survival analysis techniques. Kaplan–Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards regression models are estimated to evaluate the relationship between public expenditure and the risk of regime transitions, with and without control variables. The results indicate heterogeneous evidence across countries. In the Brazilian case, the findings suggest that increases in public expenditure were associated with a higher occurrence of both democracy and dictatorship. For Argentina, the survival of democracy was consistent with the proposed hypothesis, while dictatorship showed no statistically significant relationship with public expenditure in models including control variables.