A reeleição de prefeitos em 2020: eleitorado, coligações e organização partidária nas eleições municipais brasileiras

Abstract

The practice of reelection for Executive Power positions was enacted in 1997 and has since shown to be a significant tool in Brazilian elections. At the municipal level, the 2020 election tallied 2,069 reelected mayors, marking the highest number of reelected mayors in municipal elections, accounting for 37% of all municipal executive seats. What factors contributed to these candidates' reelection? How did the parties of the reelected mayors organize themselves in the municipalities they ran in? What coalition strategies were employed? This study aims to analyze the party organization and coalitions established by the reelected mayors in Brazil in the 2020 municipal election. The central argument is that the way a party organizes itself in a municipality, combined with the chosen coalition strategy, positively influences the performance of mayoral candidates, leading to their reelection. To carry out this study, a literature review was conducted to understand how the topic is discussed in the academic setting. The data used pertains to the candidates for reelection of the municipal executive in 2020, sourced from the TSE website, processed using quantitative research techniques, employing descriptive statistics, and generalized linear models (GLMs). The primary indicators considered were the type of party organization (directory or provisional committee), the coalition strategy used by the parties, and the size of the contested electorate. The electoral coalitions of the mayors reelected in 2020 were analyzed in comparison with the coalitions formed in 2016 to identify shifts in candidates' behavior concerning their allies. The results indicated that candidates from directory-type party organizations had a 53.5% higher chance of being reelected compared to candidates who ran for reelection in provisional committee-type organizations. More extensive coalitions showed a higher likelihood of reelection, equivalent to a 20% increase for each party making up the coalition in the analyzed scenario. Municipalities with a larger electorate showed about a 2% lower chance of reelection for every thousand voters.