Efeitos do clima e da paisagem nos padrões de distribuição e de riqueza de felinos da Mata Atlântica

Abstract

Two of the most significant forces affecting biodiversity worldwide are Global Climate Change (GCC) and Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULC). To better understand the impacts of GCC and LULC on biodiversity, it is crucial to analyze how these factors interact with terrestrial ecosystems, including the Atlantic Forest biome. In this context, the main objectives of this thesis were: (1) to evaluate how climate and landscape currently influence the distribution and richness patterns of the species Leopardus emiliae, L. guttulus, L. wiedii, Herpailurus yagouaroundi, L. pardalis, Puma concolor, and Panthera onca in the Atlantic Forest; (2) to investigate the extent to which this distribution is protected by Strict Protection Conservation Units (SPCUs); and (3) to understand how the taxonomic richness patterns of wild felines will respond to GCC and LULC in the Atlantic Forest by 2050. To achieve the first and second objectives, species distribution modeling were used to estimate suitable areas for both the current scenario and the year 2050, for the distribution of each species and for the taxonomic richness of felines. The models were created using climatic and landscape variables, employing different algorithms. All species occurrence data were obtained from data papers, other scientific articles, scientific collections, and databases. The results indicated that only 30% of the Atlantic Forest is currently suitable for feline richness, with areas of low species richness located in northeastern Brazil and Argentina. Only 9% of these suitable areas are covered by FPAs, highlighting a significant gap in feline conservation. Species such as L. emiliae (1.37%) and P. onca (1.97%) are the least protected. Projections for 2050 indicated that the loss of suitable habitat will be more pronounced under the pessimistic scenario (~87%) due to the combination of GCC and LULC. Additionally, about 61% of the analyzed areas in the Atlantic Forest have low permeability for feline richness. The results of this thesis underscore the urgent need for conservation actions in the Atlantic Forest, including the implementation, maintenance, and expansion of FPAs, landscape restoration, and increased connectivity between suitable areas. These measures could mitigate the negative impacts of GCC and LULC on feline richness in the Atlantic Forest.