Condicionantes da participação eleitoral em países africanos de língua oficial portuguesa (2001 a 2023)

Abstract

This study analyzes the factors that influence voter turnout in general elections in Portuguese-speaking African countries (PALOP). What are the factors that influence voter turnout in general elections in PALOP countries? Through this research question, we found a theoretical and methodological limitation in comparative studies on the African continent and in PALOP countries specifically. To fill this gap, we reviewed the literature, looking at different micro and macro approaches to electoral participation with reference to African studies. Methodologically, the research uses a series of Afrobarometer surveys combined with institutional and contextual data from PALOP countries. In total, we had 22,747 observations corresponding to the four countries analyzed (Angola, Cape Verde, Mozambique, and São Tomé and Príncipe) referring to nineteen legislative and presidential elections from 2001 to 2023. Using logistic regression and qualitative analysis, we found that individuals who feel close to a political party (party identification) are more likely to vote in PALOP countries. In all countries, low-income individuals were less likely to participate in elections, particularly in Mozambique and, to a lesser extent, Angola. The relationship between institutional trust and participation revealed an ambivalent pattern. In Cape Verde and São Tomé and Príncipe, contexts with greater institutional legitimacy, trust in democracy, the president, and the regime served as a mobilizing factor. In Mozambique and Angola, however, distrust of electoral institutions, such as the CNE, was associated with abstention, especially when accompanied by allegations of fraud or bias. In Angola, the participation of dissatisfied and distrustful voters even exceeded that of satisfied voters—signaling that, in hybrid regimes, voting can be used as an instrument of protest rather than endorsement. Other factors such as age, education, and civic engagement proved to be the main determinants of voter turnout, albeit modulated by different institutional, cultural, and historical contexts in the general elections of the PALOP countries.