O papel dos estoques reguladores no controle da inflação de alimentos selecionados: um estudo exploratório

Abstract

The discussion on food inflation is a highly relevant topic in the Brazilian economic debate, as it extends beyond the purely price-related issue to directly impact the population's ability to access basic food and, consequently, ensure food security. Numerous factors influence food prices, but there seems to be a consensus in both national and international literature that their origin lies on the supply side. This may explain why the primary instrument of inflation control, namely interest rates, is ineffective in stabilizing these prices. Thus, this study aimed to quantify and discuss the potential effects that direct control of the supply of the rice, bean and wheat such as through regulatory stocks, may have on their price levels. To achieve this, an index reflecting the prices of those three basic products was calculated and incorporated into a model inspired by the Phillips curve, estimated using a time series framework. The results point to the complexity of the problem of food inflation, suggesting that factors other than the quantities supplied have an influence on price variation. Even so, one cannot discard the initial hypothesis regarding the capacity that buffer stocks may provide good assistance for monetary policy, with regard to price stabilization.