Novas lideranças populistas? Uma comparação entre os Governos de Jair Bolsonaro no Brasil (2018-2022) e Viktor Orbán na Hungria (2015-2022)

Abstract

This dissertation investigates the governments of Viktor Orbán, Prime Minister of Hungary, and Jair Bolsonaro, former President of Brazil, through the lens of contemporary populism. The central objective is to determine whether these leaders can be classified as populists and, if so, to what extent their administrations posed risks and setbacks to the quality of democracy in their respective countries. The study adopts a qualitative methodology, applying a comparative case study approach supported by bibliographic research and analysis of public opinion data and institutional indicators such as the Eurobarometer and Latinobarometer. The dissertation is structured in three main parts: the first discusses the concept of populism based on theorists such as Margaret Canovan, Cas Mudde, and Cristóbal Kaltwasser, highlighting its ambiguous nature, dual structure of “people versus elite,” and adaptability to different ideological contexts. The second part examines the Hungarian case, focusing on the rise of the Fidesz party, the weakening of the rule of law, media control, attacks on the LGBTQIA+ community, and clashes with the European Union. The third part analyzes Bolsonaro's government, emphasizing conflicts with the Supreme Federal Court, denialism during the COVID-19 crisis, militarization of the public administration, anti-democratic rhetoric, and systematic attacks on the press. The dissertation concludes that both Orbán and Bolsonaro exhibit typical characteristics of contemporary populism, such as the construction of manichean narratives, anti-system discourse, and gradual institutional erosion through formal mechanisms. Despite their distinct national and historical contexts, both represent forms of authoritarian populism that undermine liberal democracy by delegitimizing political pluralism, weakening democratic institutions, and mobilizing ideologically loyal bases—thus posing concrete threats to democratic governance.